Special Olympic Issue :

	Short Takes
	The Doping Count.
	Talk Talk: the Best & Worst.
	Israel and Iran.
	Australia Shines Again.
	How Accurate Were Pre-Games Medals Predictions?
	U.S. Boxing Team.
	Californians Lead Medal Winners.

As was true at Sydney in 2000, press accounts regarding the number of doping violations at the 2004 Olympic Games varied greatly. Reports citing 20 or more violations and comparing that total to the 11 violations at Sydney in 2000 are making an apples-to-oranges comparison. The Sydney number refers only to those athletes caught by International Olympic Committee tests and sanctioned by the IOC. The 20 or 20-plus totals being cited for the Athens Games include athletes caught by IOC as well as those who ran afoul of other sport governing organizations during or just before the Games. For example, at Athens virtually every journalist who wrote about doping counted the seven weightlifters disqualified by the International Weightlifting Federation on the basis of pre-Games and pre-competition tests. Several writers counted the two Americans scheduled to play baseball for Greece, who tested positive in tests administered by the Hellenic Olympic Committee. Some also counted the athletes caught in the days before the Games who never even went to Athens, such at the Irish distance runner, Cathal Lombard. Had journalists applied the same standard at Sydney, the 2000 Games total also would have been higher than 20.

Add doping . . . By any method of counting, however, the Athens Games established a new record for athletes sanctioned by the IOC at an Olympic Games, surpassing the total 12 at the 1984 Games. The IOC, as of August 30, 2004, had sanctioned a total of 15 athletes at Athens. Twelve athletes tested positive. Three others were punished for failing to provide urine samples. The case of the two Greek sprinters, Konstantinos Kenteris and Ekaterini Thanou, is more complicated. The IOC recognized that the two athletes "without compelling justification" had failed to "submit to sample collection." However, since Kenteris and Thanou surrendered their Olympic accreditation cards before the IOC could fully investigate the charges against them, the IOC stated on August 14 that it was "no longer the authority responsible for issuing potential sanctions" against Kenteris and Thanou "related to the Athens Olympic Games." The IOC referred the matter to the International Association of Athletics Federations and requested that the IAAF investigate not only the athletes, but also their coach Christos Tzekos.

Add doping . . . The 20-plus doping incidents reported in conjunction with the Athens Games represent only a small percentage of all recent doping violations in international sport. In the twelve months between the BALCO raid in Burlingame, Calif., on September 3, 2003, and the close of the Athens Games, approximately 200 athletes worldwide tested positive or committed some other doping infraction. The athletes involved came from a wide range of sports and included world champions, continental champions and Olympic medallists in weightlifting, boxing, track and field, mountain biking, road cycling, gymnastics and alpine skiing. SportsLetter will provide a more detailed accounting in its next issue.

Final doping . . . Dick Pound, chairman of the World Anti-Doping Agency, seems to be singing a very different tune about whether athletes should speak out on the doping issue. On the eve of the Athens Games, in response to Ian Thorpe's claim that he has competed against drug users, Pound defended Thorpe. Athletes, said Pound, "are more likely to know whether their competitors are using drugs or not, and I think they should be free to point it out." This is very different from what he said in 2002 at the Olympic Winter Games. When Canada's Beckie Scott finished third in the women's cross country pursuit, she let it be known that she believed the two Russians who finished ahead of her had used banned drugs. "I feel I didn't compete in an entirely clean field," said Scott. Pound responded that Scott's charges were "not helpful" and added, "She should be careful about shooting her mouth off without knowing what she's talking about." You know the rest of the story. Scott, in fact, did know what she was talking about. A couple of days later both Russians tested positive and Scott eventually was awarded the gold medal. Pound has since stated that his remarks were misunderstood.

When you have 10,500 athletes, 21,500 accredited media personnel and more than 1,200 hours of Olympic broadcasts in the United States alone, there are sure to be some memorable comments. Here are some of the best and worst.

In the opening round of Olympic judo competition, Iranian world champion and Opening Ceremony flag-bearer Arash Miresmaeili made news when he exceeded the 66-kg weight limit thereby avoiding competing against Ehud Vaks of Israel. According to an Iranian NOC spokesman, government policy bans competition "against athletes of the Zionist regime."

Add Iran . . . Miresmaeili's withdrawal is not the first episode of its sort in judo. The Jerusalem Post reported, "At the 2001 world championships, Mahed Malekmohammdi refused to face Yoel Razvozov, while Asian champion Masoud Haji Akhoundzade also pulled out of a planned clash with Israeli lightweight Zvi Shafran."

Add Iran . . . The Iranian National Olympic Committee makes no secret of its hostility toward Israel and Israeli sport. The English-language homepage of the Iranian NOC contains a letter addressed to IOC President Dr. Jacques Rogge and signed by Iran's NOC President Seyed Mostafa Hashemi Taba. Dated April 2002, the letter reads in part that "We know that the establishment of the Israeli state came about by terror, genocide of the Palestinian people and by forceful possession of their homes . . . And as the NOC of Taliban-ruled Afghanistan was suspended, it is also necessary for the IOC to withdraw its recognition from the NOC of Israel deciding on a boycott against them in terms of participation in sport competitions and international sport forums."

Final Iran . . . Meanwhile, in a decidedly mixed message, the Iranian Olympic Academy website asserts that its "goal [is] to place everywhere sport at the service of the harmonious development of man, the Olympic movement tries to help create a peaceful and better world."

Oi, oi, oi . . . Australia once again turned in an impressive Olympic performance. The Aussies, with a national population of 19.9 million, won 49 medals, finishing fourth in the overall national medal count. This is noteworthy on a number of scores. First, on a per capita basis, the Australians outperformed the other top-five finishers — the United States, Russia, China and Germany — by wide margins. Second, unlike the East Germans of the 1970s and 1980s, who poured most of their Olympic effort into individual sports, rather than team sports, the Australians won medals in both individual and team sports including softball, baseball and basketball. Third, unlike countries in which virtually all athletic talent is steered into Olympic sports only, some of Australia's best athletic talent is siphoned off into a number of non-Olympic sports. Australian Rules football, rugby, cricket and netball all attract athletes who might otherwise pursue Olympic sports.

Medal count . . . Predicting the United States medal count has become a quadrennial event. Prior to the Athens Olympics, the United States Olympic Committee forecast that American athletes would win 100 medals. The United States medal count at Athens exceeded USOC expectations. The Americans finished with 103 medals, six more than their total in 2000. At Athens, the United States was trailed by Russia (92), China (63), Australia (49), and Germany (48).

Add medals . . . USOC officials were not the only ones to weigh in on this topic. The pre-Olympic favorites among prognosticators were business professors Andrew Bernard, of Dartmouth College, and Meghan Busse, of the University of California, Berkeley, who accurately forecast the American team's medal haul in Sydney, right down to the last gold medal. For Athens, the pair predicted a "third straight decline in total medals for the U.S." with 93 total medals, followed by Russia, China, Germany, and Australia. Others who weighed in with 2004 predictions included Sports Illustrated; Colorado College economics professor Dan Johnson and his colleague Ayfer Ali; and PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Add medals . . . This time around, it was Johnson and Ali who were right on the money, accurately predicting the American total of 103. Pricewaterhouse missed the United States count by the widest margin, predicting a mere total of 70 medals. It must have been just another accounting error.

Final medals . . . The two academic teams and Pricewaterhouse overestimated the Greeks home field advantage. All three predictions put Greece among the top 10, with anywhere from 27 to 35 medals. Greece actually finished 17th with 16 medals.

2004 PRE-GAMES PREDICTIONS & ACTUAL RESULTS

Tracking the times . . . Before the Athens Games, three sports science professors at the University of Thessaly, in Karyes Trikala, Greece, predicted the results of selected track and field events, using a method, which according to their paper, was "based on autoregressive modeling of raw data after selecting a number of poles." They forecast that performances at Athens would improve over Sydney in 10 of 14 selected events. Although the professors correctly predicted 11 of 15 outcomes before Sydney, their 2004 predictions were wrong on seven of 14 events, including the men's 100 meters, the men's 400 meters, and five of the six women's event in their study.

Break 'em up . . . The performance of the United States women's softball team, which allowed all of one run in nine games to claim its third consecutive gold medal, prompted media reports that softball may be dropped from the Olympic program, in part because of American dominance. Actually, the IOC has said that it will review the entire Olympic program in 2005, with no major changes expected in Beijing. But if dominance becomes a criterion for exclusion, then several Olympic sports would face elimination. South Korea's women's teams rule archery. They have won every individual gold medal since 1984 and every team gold medal since 1988 at the Seoul Games. China's women have dominated table tennis, added to the program in 1988, winning every singles gold medal and every doubles gold medal except one. In equestrian, Germany has won the team jumping gold medal in four consecutive Olympic Games. Germany has won every team dressage gold medal since 1984.

Rocking the boat . . . More than 100 websites recycled an AP story claiming that 2004 Olympian Aquil Abdullah was the "first black to row for the U.S. Olympic team" and was "two races away from becoming the first to win a medal." The report was wrong on two counts. Abdullah, who finished sixth in the men's double sculls event, is the first black male United States Olympic rower. The first African American athlete to row for the U.S. Olympic team was Anita DeFrantz. She won a bronze medal in 1976 in the eight. DeFrantz also qualified for the 1980 U.S. team. In addition, Patricia Spratlen, another African American, made the 1980 Olympic team, and raced for the United States in the 1984 Games, finishing fourth in the four without coxswain.

Boxed out . . . The American boxers left Athens with one gold and one bronze medal. Freddie Roach, who trains, among others, 2000 United States Olympian Brian Viloria at the Wild Card Boxing Gym in Los Angeles, notes that the "other countries are catching up to the American style of training. The Europeans used to fight more straight-up and a little stiff. They've adapted to the American style — more fluid and not presenting such a big target. So we're not as dominant as before."

Add boxing . . . The break-up of the Soviet Union has hastened the United States decline in boxing, according to Roach. That's because the many newly-created countries — including Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Belarus — all send strong teams to the Games, thus increasing the number of highly talented boxers in the tournament. In Athens, countries that are former Soviet republics won 15 medals in boxing.

Add boxing . . . USA Boxing official Melanie Ley believes the lure of professional boxing careers works against United States medal hopes. "We start out with new kids every four years," she says. "Their goal is to turn pro and make money. In Cuba, the boxers can't go pro so they keep boxing for their country. They have depth on the team."

Add boxing . . . While boxing experts believe that gold medallist Andre Ward and bronze medallist Andre Dirrell show pro potential, at least one promoter thinks that this year's class of Olympic boxers will not receive much "bounce" from Athens. "The economics in boxing are much different, and much worse, than four years ago," says Lou DiBella, who signed several American Olympians after Sydney. "Without the support of the television networks, there's no money out there for signing bonuses. The two Andres — both of whom are talented fighters — will see some interest, but they won't see big checks."

Final boxing . . . Meanwhile, the Olympic boxing class of 2000 is rising in the pro ranks. Jermain Taylor, promoted by DiBella, is undefeated. Roach expects Vilario to fight for the title later this year or early next year. One of the most highly-touted young fighters is Juan Diaz. After an accomplished amateur career, Diaz made Mexico's Olympic team in 2000. (He holds dual citizenship in the United States and Mexico.) Diaz, however, was too young to compete in Sydney, so he decided to turn pro instead. With his recent victory over Mongolia's Lakva Sim, Diaz became the newly-crowned WBA lightweight champ.

Olympian State . . . There were 218 American athletes who received Olympic medals at Athens. Seventy-eight of them list a town or city in California as their "hometown". The next closest state was Texas with 14.