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Los Angeles, November 3, 2000
Volume 12, Number 3/4
Dear Reader,
With the announcement
that wrestlers Alexander Leipold of Germany and Oyunbileg Purevbaatar of Mongolia,
tested positive for banned substances at the Sydney Games, it appears that no
more Sydney Games disqualifications are forthcoming. There was a good deal
of confusion in press reports both during and after the Games regarding the number
of positives reported by the International Olympic Committee at the 2000 Games.
Part of the confusion stemmed from the high number of athletes who tested positive
before arriving in Sydney as a result of non-IOC tests. Keep in mind that the
IOC tests only immediately before and during the Games. The total number of
positive tests reported by the IOC was 11. Nine of these were classified as
"in competition" tests (meaning the testing took place right after a competition);
two were out of competition. The IOC revoked six medals because of positive
tests. Contrary
to some reports, the 2000 Games did not produce the highest number of positive
tests conducted during an Olympic Games. The IOC reported 12 positives in
1984 at Los Angeles. Two medallists in L.A. were among the guilty. At Seoul, where
10 positives were reported, five athletes lost their medals. Many athletes ended
up not participating at Sydney because of pre-Games tests conducted by organizations
other than the IOC. If you count all of the athletes busted by the IOC for
tests in Sydney and all of athletes who did not compete as a result of non-IOC
positives announced in August, September or early October, the number comes to
at least 40. This total does not include any of the 27 athletes left home
by the Chinese Olympic Committee, the "overwhelming majority" of whom, according
to a team spokesperson, had "suspicious" blood tests. It does not count Petar
Merkov and Marian Dimitrov, the Bulgarian kayakers who competed in Sydney despite
reports that they tested positive for a banned diuretic in July. It does not include
the five Italian gold medallists that, according to press reports, were among
61 elite Italian athletes showing elevated levels of human growth hormone during
tests between March and August. Nor does it account for the many athletes such
as Wu Yanyan of China, Doug Walker and Linford Christie of Great Britain, and
Cezar Badita of Romania, who tested positive earlier in 2000 or back in 1999.
Finally, we do not know how many athletes voluntarily pulled out of the Games
because of fear of being caught or because of pending drug charges.
So what
to make of all this? Clearly there is a long way to go in the fight against
drugs. Until the IOC and other governing bodies implement truly effective
tests for human growth hormone and EPO, a cloud of suspicion will hang over elite
sport. That said, the IOC, the World Anti-Doping Agency, the national Olympic
committees and the international federations deserve credit for catching more
cheaters than ever before. SportsLetter finds something hypocritical about
journalists who railed about weak doping enforcement before the Games and then
gleefully proclaimed the 2000 Games as "drug tainted" because of the high number
of positive tests. You cannot have it both ways

If
a boxer and a wrestler had a fight, who would....Well, never mind.
But, how about this? Could a college professor do a better job
of predicting Olympic medal tallies than a sportswriter? Dartmouth
professor Andrew Bernard and Yale colleague Meghan Busse used a
theoretical model to predict how many medals various nations would
win in Sydney. Another paper by Daniel Johnson, an economist from
Wellesly College, and Harvard undergraduate Ayfer Ali used a different
model. The academic studies both assumed that Gross National Product,
population and previous performance at the Games were key determinants
of medal production in Sydney. Sports Illustrated's Brian
Cazaneuve relied on good old-fashioned reporting methods. Here are
there top six picks.
| Sports
Illustrated |
Bernard/Busse |
Johnson/Ali |
Sydney
Results |
| USA
117 |
USA
97 |
USA
90 |
USA
97 |
| Russia
85 |
Germany
63 |
China
85 |
Russia
88 |
| Australia
65 |
Russia
59 |
Germany
61 |
China
59 |
| China
56 |
China
49 |
Australia
54 |
Australia
58 |
| Germany
64 |
Australia
52 |
Russia
29 |
Germany
56 |
| France
43 |
France
38 |
France
28 |
France
38 |
Clearly,
SI, did the best job of predicting the relative positions
of the top six nations. Bernard and Busse hit the medal counts
for the USA and France right on the head. However, before you
become too enamored of the Bernard and Busse model, you should know
that their calculations were based on the mistaken assumption that
888 medals would be awarded in Sydney. The real total was 928. Still,
all in all, an impressive job by the prognosticators.

SI
jinx … Sports Illustrated put Belarus gymnast Ivan Ivankov on the cover
of the Olympic preview issue (doused in Goldfinger-esque paint), dubbing him "the
world's best gymnast." The magazine predicted that Ivankov would win one gold
medal and two silvers. Ivankov never mounted the podium.
Me and Mrs. Jones ...
Marion Jones, of course, enjoyed a fabulous Olympics on the track, winning three
gold medals and two bronze. But, Sydney was not the first occasion that Marion
Jones won an Olympic medal. In 1900, American tennis star Marion Jones won
two bronze medals, in women's singles and mixed doubles. According to Olympic
historian David Wallechinsky, Jones didn't win a match in the singles competition,
but she shared the bronze with Hedwiga Rosenbaumova. Jones' doubles partner, Brit
Hugh "Laurie" Doherty, swept the gold medals in singles and men's doubles (playing
with his brother Reginald Doherty). 
Many
observers (including filmmaker Bud Greenspan) are calling the night of September
25 the greatest night in track and field history. They may well be right. After
all, what do you call a night that included Cathy Freeman's historic 400m win,
Michael Johnson's 400m repeat, Haile Gebrselassie's duel with Paul Tergat in the
10,000, Gabriela Szabo's thriller over Sonia O'Sullivan in the 5,000, Maria Mutola's
winning Mozambique's first-ever gold medal in the 800m, triple jumper Jonathan
Edwards finally winning gold, and Stacy Dragila out-jumping Tatiana Grigorieva
to win the first-ever women's pole vault? We'd say "priceless," but that one's
been used. 
Thunder
from down under ... At the Sydney Games, the boxing format was changed. Instead
of the customary three three-minute rounds, the bouts consisted of four two-minute
rounds. As expected, Cuba won the most boxing gold medals, with four, including
heavyweight Felix Savon's record-tying third consecutive gold medal. U.S. boxers
took home four medals. No American won a gold medal - the first time since 1948
that an American team was shut out of gold, excluding, of course, the boycotted
Moscow Games. Add boxing … L.A.-based boxing journalist Steve Kim worked for NBC
in Sydney and saw every fight in the tournament. He rated the top pro prospects:
"The Simion brothers from Romania - Dorel, a welterweight who won the bronze,
and Marin, who beat Fernando Vargas in the '96 Olympics and won a silver medal
in Sydney. Both are very active, with crowd-pleasing and aggressive styles. Mexico's
featherweight Francisco Bojado has excellent boxing skills, with great speed.
Ricardo Williams and Ricardo "Rocky" Juarez both won silver medals and were the
only two U.S. boxers to reach the finals. They're our best prospects in terms
of pure natural talent and what it takes to succeed in the pros." Kim also touted
the hard-hitting youngster Sven Paris, from Italy, and Mahamakadyz Abdullaev,
from Uzbekistan, who beat Williams for the gold in a controversial final. Add
boxing ... The fight of the tourney? Williams' 42-41 squeaker over Cuba's Diogenes
Luna in the semi-finals. "It wasn't a pitcher's duel," said Kim.
Surfing the Web ...
According to Gould Media, www.olympics.com received 683 million hits on Sept.
18. The one-day tally surpassed the 634 million hits that Nagano's official Web
site received during the entire 16 days of those Games. (The site for the Atlanta
Games received 187 million hits.) By September 26, the Sydney site had more
than 7.2 billion hits. By the end of the Games, the site had tallied more than
nine billion hits. This figure doesn't include the millions of hits "mistakenly"
received by www.olympic.com - the official Web site for Olympic Paint. Master
of their domains ... We've read many horror stories about people who've tried
to make their fortunes by cybersquatting on valuable domain names. But some of
these brainiacs apparently have not done their homework. How else to explain these
Web sites: www.2002athensolympics.com (wonder how Salt Lake City feels about that);
www.2003winterolympics.com and www.jeuxolympiques2003.com (the French accent doesn't
help); and www.2005londonolympics.com (say what?). More
Web madness: www.citiusaltiusfortius.com and www.citius-altius-fortius.com have
also been reserved. As have samaranch.com, samaranch.net, samaranch.org. No word
if anyone's taken www.angelopoulos-daskalaki.com.
 All
Greek to me ... There was much made of the medals snafu in Sydney, wherein a "Roman"
Coliseum was imprinted on the Olympic medals. But the medal designers weren't
the only ones who were confused. Journalist Allen St. John, in a feature article
for Samsung's Olympic preview program, began his story: Citius, Altius, Fortius.
Sounds like Ancient Greek to you? Well, you're right, so put away the dictionary
- it means faster, higher, stronger." Yeah, in Latin. Add
design ... Singling out the Sydney organizers for criticism of the medal design
is not really fair. The Roman Coliseum design has been on Olympic medals since
1928. 
Track
marks … The 2000 U.S. Olympic Trials, held at Hornet Stadium on the Cal State
Sacramento's campus this July, shattered the all-time ticket sales for such Trials,
far ahead of the previous high set by Atlanta in 1996. But that wasn't good
enough for Fresno Bee reporter John Canzano, who complained that USATF "could
have secured something bigger in a large media market." Canzano noted that "Stanford
Stadium holds 80,000, and the Los Angeles Coliseum, site of the 1984 Summer Games,
has a base track and field capacity of 68,000 seats. Both were viewed by USATF
as too large to fill." The Coliseum was also the site of the 1932 Games, but Canzano
forgot about one small fact: the Coliseum's track was ripped out in 1993, to accommodate
the L.A. Raiders football team. Add
Sacramento ... After the trials, Simon Baker, Australia's representative on
the IAAF's Athletes' Commission, went on Radio 2UE and questioned whether Michael
Johnson and Maurice Greene withdrew from the 200m race to avoid mandatory drug
tests. "It just looked like a couple of guys who wanted to avoid scrutiny,"
said Baker, a race walker who represented Australia at four Olympic Games. "You
start to wonder when you suddenly have two athletes of that caliber pulling out.
You start to think maybe there's a bit of pressure, maybe they're starting to
think they have to be a bit more circumspect in terms of if they had finished
first, second or third, they would have been specifically up for a drug test."
Memo to Simon: both Johnson and Greene were tested earlier in the trials, after
winning the 400m and 100m races, respectively. 
NBC,
the bad news ... Many media pundits noted that NBC's Sydney ratings were down
considerably from past Olympics. It's true the Sydney Games averaged only a 13.8
rating in prime time, the lowest ratings since the 1968 Games, and well below
the network's projected rating of 17.5. And, it's true that NBC's ratings were
approximately 36 percent below what Atlanta registered in 1996, and 21 percent
lower than the Seoul Games.
NBC, the good news ... But the news wasn't all bad for NBC. The network won the
coveted prime-time ratings contest every night during the Games. During the first
week of the Games, NBC's viewership exceeded the viewing audience of ABC, CBS
and Fox combined. An average of 59 million Americans watched the Olympic Games
each night; approximately 185 million American viewers watched at least part of
the Games - or 84 percent of U.S. households with televisions. Add
numbers ... NBC's ratings were 93 percent higher than the average prime-time rating.
(The last time the Games were held in the fall, in Seoul, they were only 35 percent
higher.) And "The Today Show," NBC's morning program which aired live from Sydney,
killed the competition. Add
numbers ... NBC can also point to the fact that the television landscape has changed
considerably in the last decade. According to Nielsen Media research, in 1988
the average home received fewer than 30 television channels. Today, the average
home receives 60. In addition, cable television has mushroomed, reaching over
two-thirds of U.S. homes (compared to 50 percent in the late 1980s). And, hardly
anyone had heard of the Internet in 1988.
Add television ... The Sydney Games were broadcast in more countries and territories
than any Olympics in history: 220 countries televised the Games, up from 214 in
Atlanta and 193 in Barcelona.  The
price of gold … In Britain, the public pumped £60 million (US $87.3 million)
into the World Class Performance Programme, since 1996, through the National Lottery.
The program supported 24 sports, including 13 sports represented at the Sydney
Games, where Britain won 28 medals. The cost per medal? About £2.1 million
($3.01 million). According to www.sportcal.com, Britain's two medals in modern
pentathlon were the best bargain at roughly £486,437 ($707,766) a medal. Contrast
that to gymnastics at £4,871,522 ($7.1 million), with no medals, and swimming
at £6,035,015, ($8.8 million), with no medals. With Steve Redgrave at the helm,
rowing received the most funding from the program - £9,598,048 ($14 million).
 The
more things change ... Gender in Televised Sports: 1989, 1993 and 1999,
a recent study commissioned by the Amateur Athletic Foundation, reports that television
still does not provide comprehensive, quality coverage of women's sports.
Co-investigators Dr. Margaret Carlisle Duncan and Dr. Michael Messner analyzed
ESPN's "SportsCenter" as well as three local news shows in Los Angeles. Duncan
and Messner found that local news shows have improved slightly since they last
examined the industry in 1993, though men's sports reports outnumber women's stories
by a 6:1 ratio and women's sports represent only 8.7 percent of the total sports
news segment. Unfortunately, according to Duncan and Messner, many of the longer,
more detailed women's sports stories are of the "gag" variety - including features
on the "Laker Girl" tryouts and nude bungee jumping. Add
study ... ESPN's "SportsCenter," analyzed over a three-week span, fared worse
than the local news shows. The show aired "proportionately less coverage of women's
sports" than the local sports news shows, according to the study. A miniscule
2.2 percent of "SportsCenter" was devoted to women's sports, and the male-to-female
story proportion was a whopping 15:1. Not a single "SportsCenter" program
began with a women's story.
More study ... Gender in Televised Sports also presented a qualitative
analysis of the coverage of the 1999 U.S. Open Tennis Tournament, the NCAA Division
I basketball tournament and WNBA broadcasts. The study concluded that while
the technical production of women's sports events has improved, it falls short
of the men's coverage. For example, broadcasts of women's events, in general,
used fewer relays and statistical graphics than broadcasts of men's sports. The
postgame shows following men's and women's games differ significantly. The men's
postgame shows were "substantially longer and offer in-depth analysis and dramatic
recaps that left the viewers feeling that they had watched an exciting, important
and dramatic event." In contrast, the women's postgame shows were "short and hurried
... leaving women's basketball fans feeling that perhaps ESPN was in a hurry to
get someplace else." Add
study … The study noted that the commentators on local sports news and "SportsCenter"
show ethnic diversity - 61 percent were white, 39 percent were people of color.
But the vast majority of these commentators were men - some 96.8 percent - suggesting,
the authors write, that "this is still a highly sex-segregated occupation." You
can read the report by going to www.AAFla.org and clicking on AAF
Research Reports.(PDF)
This month's mascot,
Phar Lap, the champion racehorse and an Australian hero. After his mysterious
death in 1932 in Northern California, Phar Lap was stuffed and put on display
in the Melbourne Museum where he stood from 1933 to 1997. The museum closed for
renovations in 1997 and reopened this year with a refurbished Phar Lap placed
once again on prominent display as of October 21, 2000, where he is the museum's
most popular exhibit.

SportsLetter
is published bimonthly. Reproduction is encouraged with credit to the Amateur
Athletic Foundation of Los Angeles. Copyright 2000, Amateur Athletic Foundation
of Los Angeles. All rights reserved. The
AAF Paul Ziffren Sports Resource Center
2141 West Adams
Boulevard, Los Angeles, CA 90018.
E-mail:

Telephone:
(323) 730-4646
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Staff: Wayne Wilson, Vice President , Research; Daniel Bell, Research Director;
Shirley Ito, Librarian; Michael Salmon, Librarian; Bonita Carter, Library
Assistant; Carmen Rivera, Research Associate. SportsLetter
Editorial Staff: F. Patrick Escobar, Managing Editor; Wayne Wilson, Editor;
Dave Davis, Associate Editor. 
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